Case Study: Fragile context monitoring and early warning
Enabling early warning and anticipatory action in fragile contexts

In Central Africa and the Great Lakes region, government agencies sought a clearer understanding of conflict, mobility, and market dynamics to adapt strategies and programmes in fragile environments. GIST was commissioned to design and operate a continuous monitoring capability to support early warning and informed decision-making.

Our approach
GIST designed and operates a context monitoring platform for government agencies in Central Africa and the Great Lakes region, focused on tracking conflict dynamics, population movement, and market conditions across humanitarian, security, and economic domains.

The platform integrates primary field research with all-source analysis, drawing on locally collected data, social media monitoring, open-source reporting, satellite imagery, and closed-channel feeds. Large volumes of data are processed to generate contextual analysis, early warning indicators, and forward-looking scenarios.

Related experience

  • Stronger situational awareness across conflict, mobility, and market systems
  • Earlier identification of emerging risks affecting programmes and investments
  • More effective use of early warning to inform adaptive responses
  • Improved decision-making under uncertainty in fragile operating environments

GIST works closely with government counterparts to ensure insights are delivered in formats and timeframes that support programme adaptation, risk management, and operational planning.

Related experience
Since 2020, GIST has applied similar monitoring and early warning approaches for development banks, UN agencies, and private-sector partners across the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Middle East.

By combining field research, network mapping, and remote monitoring, GIST delivers integrated insight that helps partners anticipate escalation, manage exposure, and adjust responses as conditions change.

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